Project Owner: İstanbul Metropolitan Municipality

Directorate of Ground and Earthquake Research

Contractor: OYO Int. Co. Japan

Simulation of data and Video: Middle East Technical University.

The Goal of the Project and Summary: The goal of the Project is to combine the historical data, recent research tools and opportunities to have an understanding and determination of tsunami inundation areas for the coastal part of İstanbul. Harmonisation of Scientific and administrative strategies, assessment of the level of tsunami hazard, calculation of a possible damage, risk identification,  development of prevention strategies and risk mitigation are the objectives of the project.

Modelling:  Modelling studies are completed by the development of real time, interactive algorithms using the fault dislocations and bathimetric data for determination of the tsunami-prone coastal areas with estimated arrival time.  Generation of tsunami, propagation, approach of waves to coast, effects observed in gulf and bay, runup, digital models used for the tsunami simulations, drifting effect of strong currents at shallower depths, sea level rises, digital models related to the calculation of damage levels with respect to construction attributes is developed and standardizied. It is a real fact that İstanbul coasts have effected by tsunami before. Therefore it is possible to face tsunami hazard at İstanbul coasts. 

Scenarios: 49 different scenarios are evaluated causing tsunami generation in the Marmara Sea. Earthquakes and fault ruptures on the Northern and Southern branches of North Anatolian Fault and detected probable submarine mass failure areas are considered in tsunami models. Location of the faults and submarine landslides used in scenarios are shown in above figure. 49 scenarios are obtained with various combination of fault ruptures and submarine landslides. 

Scenario ID18: Cascade scenario of Fault and Landslides   

• Maximum wave height at the coastal part of İstanbul is 5.56 m.
• Maximum length of the inundated area is,10 km, located at the eastern side of İstanbul alongated parallel to the coast.
• Tsunami arrival time is 8 minutes.
•  Inundation area is less than 150 m.